The Luck of the Draw: A Look Into the Recent Dry Spell of Successful NFL Quarterbacks
By: Jack Zinke | Nov 11, 2024
The Draft is the premier avenue for a struggling NFL team to find a diamond in the rough that will be able to move the franchise in the right direction. Some familiar instances come to mind with Tom Brady being drafted by the Patriots late in the 6th round of the 2000 NFL Draft or even Russell Wilson as a mid-round selection for the Seattle Seahawks in 2012. There have also been cases where the obvious first overall pick turns out to be just as good as they were expected to be, such as Peyton Manning or John Elway. The quarterback is arguably the most coveted position in the Draft. A top QB selection signifies hope and a future for a team. The flip side of this is that if the top-rated Draft pick flops, the fan base typically turns to outrage.
From 2017 to 2020, there was an abundance of successful Draft picks used on quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, and Jordan Love just to name a few. This overflow of talent has subsided, though, in recent years. Since 2021, the NFL Draft has produced a dry spell of successful quarterbacks. Of the 44 quarterbacks selected from 2021 to 2024, only 5 would be considered successful thus far. Just 6 players would be classified as to be determined and 7 as unknown (2024 selections that haven’t played enough/haven’t played).
Using data from ESPN, I have compiled a list of all quarterback Draft selections in this time frame. In addition to this I have classified all of the players as either successful (green), to be determined (yellow), unknown (gray), and unsuccessful (red). Their Draft year, round/pick selected, team drafted by, career record (includes all games played in), and passer rating are all listed in the table below:
Obviously, not all picks are going to “hit” as there are only 32 starting jobs up for grabs in the NFL. Furthermore, most of these slots are taken up by quarterbacks selected in previous Draft classes. Not every player drafted will get the opportunity to step into a starting role, where it is their job to lose; however, the majority of players who have gotten that opportunity have not lived up to their expectations from 2021-2024.
For example, the 2021 Draft class’ 1st round QBs have been unable to garner much success at all despite lots of playing time. 2nd overall pick Zach Wilson has played in 34 games, where he has only been able to tally 14 wins. He was handed the starting job right out of the Draft and had a solid defense to support him, yet failed miserably in New York. Former Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has played in 45 games and former Bears quarterback Justin Fields has played in 47. The most successful 1st rounder from 2021 is Trevor Lawrence, and even he has a subpar W-L record (22-37). Lawrence is the only member of this 1st round group to still remain with his original team and to actually win a playoff game. The point is that there have been plenty of opportunities given to this bunch, outside of Trey Lance, who has played in just 9 games with only one appearance across the 2023 and 2024 seasons. The 2021 QB Draft class has arguably been considered as the worst of all time, and rightfully so. The one player from this class that still has a chance to prove something is Justin Fields, who had a promising start to the 2024 season in place of injured starter Russell Wilson.
2nd overall pick Zach Wilson poses with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell on-stage at the 2021 NFL Draft.
Other than Lawrence, the only other quarterbacks that I have classified as successful are Brock Purdy, CJ Stroud, Bo Nix, and Jayden Daniels. I was a little hesitant to add Rookie Bo Nix onto this list with such a small sample size, but in comparison with the other recent Draft picks, it would be unfair to place him in any other category. CJ Stroud was exceptional in his rookie season, arguably posting the best campaign for a rookie signal caller of all time, winning the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award in a landslide. Stroud put up 4,108 yards, 23 passing touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions last year. Brock Purdy, the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, was able to take the reins of a prolific San Francisco offense after Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo both suffered season-ending injuries. Purdy was undefeated in games that he started and finished in 2022, falling to the Eagles in the NFC Championship after suffering a torn UCL early on in the matchup. The following year was his first complete season as a starter, where he finished 4th in MVP voting after posting 4,280 yards and 31 passing touchdowns in 16 games, taking the Niners to the Super Bowl. Outside of Lawrence, Purdy, and Stroud, only rookies Jayden Daniels and previously mentioned Bo Nix remain. Daniels has had a stellar start to 2024, and is an early favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. It is mind boggling that there have been just 5 successful quarterbacks out of 44 selected. This equates to a measly 11.3% success rate.
Even the very recently drafted 2023 class already has produced “likely busts.” Panthers 1st overall pick Bryce Young has been benched numerous times for career backup Andy Dalton and “superhuman athlete” Anthony Richardson was benched just last week for nearly 40-year old Joe Flacco. The Titans have also been frequently moving 2nd rounder Will Levis from the bench to the field and back to the bench again. The sun has not completely set on any of these 3, but time is definitely running out.
Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson was recently benched for 39-year old veteran Joe Flacco.
It’s become very clear that the NFL has a quarterback problem looming. It may be fine for the next 4-5 years thanks to the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson. Nonetheless, as these stars age there will be a need for replacements. If the upcoming talent from the Draft continues to trickle in at the rate that it is, teams will begin to look to select other positions more frequently. Hopefully this trajectory shifts with Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Miami’s Cam Ward likely to be early selections in 2025. Other than these two, though, the quarterback Draft class looks to be mighty bleak.
It will be up to NFL scouts and front office executives to spot future talent at the most pivotal position in the sport. NFL viewership is reaching heights that it has never seen before and if the level of play on the field starts to dip, those numbers may start to dip as well. Again, the NFL has a major issue looming, and hopefully it is resolved very soon.
